Vote of Confidence Coming
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has announced that he will make his soft wood lumber bill a vote of confidence. At first set I'm looking forward to an early election so we (as in Liberals) can take Government again. Quite frankly it gets lonely here in Opposition. However, when examined more closely this would be a perfect time for Harper to have an election. Let us look at the reasons.
1. Despite polls showing otherwise, it seems on the ground support for Harper is skyrocketing. We see this especially in the Jewish commnuity where his unwavering support for Israel has not only earned him points, it has earned him Liberals.
2. There is no Liberal Leader to run against him. Now Mike Eizenga has said he has a plan that does not include Bill Graham. I am personally very curious as to what this means. The possibility of a mail in vote has been raised in some circles, however, I'm not a personal fan of this.
More on number 2...
We have overcome this. Most notably, after a young Bob Rae brought down the Joe Clark Government and aging Pierre Trudeau took another run at it. However, in this case I simply don't see anyone who can (or quite frankly should) be our leader prior to December.
So the question is, "Is it possible for the Liberal Party to win an early election?"
1. Despite polls showing otherwise, it seems on the ground support for Harper is skyrocketing. We see this especially in the Jewish commnuity where his unwavering support for Israel has not only earned him points, it has earned him Liberals.
2. There is no Liberal Leader to run against him. Now Mike Eizenga has said he has a plan that does not include Bill Graham. I am personally very curious as to what this means. The possibility of a mail in vote has been raised in some circles, however, I'm not a personal fan of this.
More on number 2...
We have overcome this. Most notably, after a young Bob Rae brought down the Joe Clark Government and aging Pierre Trudeau took another run at it. However, in this case I simply don't see anyone who can (or quite frankly should) be our leader prior to December.
So the question is, "Is it possible for the Liberal Party to win an early election?"
posted by Jordan | 7:59 AM
2 Comments:
No. The Liberals won't be able to win an early election.
I'm not saying that because I don't want them to (I don't actually but that's irrelevant) but for the same reasons you point out. The Liberals look disorganized and are in a fundraising funk. They need a serious overhaul.
To my understanding, the bill is a fiscal measure as it introduces some form of taxation as part of the agreement, so it will be a confidence vote by default. The media seems to be portraying this as if Harper had a choice as to whether or not it was a confidence matter.
If the opposition (namely the Liberals) forces an early election over something as mundane as softwood lumber, then I believe they'll get slaughtered at the polls.
The people are tired of elections, we've had 2 in 2 years, I would be really annoyed if the Libs forced a 3rd one over something like this.
Let's not forget that poor Bill Graham is a horrendeous leader, with most of his caucus treating him like a substitute teacher. He'd get owned in a campaign by the much more experienced leaders.
I think a fall election would likely lead to a 1958-style landslide in favour of the Conservatives.
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